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02/13/2012 - Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tied with top-ranked Kentucky for the best overall record in the nation, the Syracuse Orange hit the road tonight to clash with the Louisville Cardinals in a Big East Conference showdown at the KFC Yum! Center.
Since suffering their only loss of the season to Notre Dame on the road last month, the Orange have ripped off another five wins, two of those coming in the last week. First, Syracuse survived in overtime against Georgetown on Wednesday night (64-61), and then on Saturday the squad pummeled UConn at the Carrier Dome (85-67). Overall, Syracuse is 25-1 and 12-1 in conference play, one of only two teams in the Big East with double-digit wins (Marquette, 10-3).
As for the Cardinals, they've rebounded nicely after losing three of four conference games in January. After bowing to Marquette on the road (74-63) in the middle of the month, Louisville has logged six consecutive victories and is now 8-4 in conference play, which keeps it in the hunt for a top spot in the standings with the Big East Tournament just a few short weeks away. On Saturday, the team picked up a narrow 77-74 win over West Virginia in Morgantown, evening out the all-time series with the Mountaineers on the road at 3-3 in the process. Louisville has now won at least 20 games in 10 straight seasons, and head coach Rick Pitino has done it a total of 20 times during his illustrious career.
Not only do the Cardinals hold the overall lead in the series with Syracuse at 13-4, they've also been almost unbeatable at home in the relationship, posting seven wins in eight opportunities, not to mention winning seven straight matchups overall. The two teams are slated to close out the regular season against each other in early March.
With the Huskies still sticking around in the second half, Syracuse put together a 22-6 run late in order to produce the 18-point win over UConn at the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Scoop Jardine led the hosts with 21 points, hitting all four of his three-point attempts and making 8-of-9 shots from the floor overall, not to mention handing out six assists. Dion Waiter added 18 points and Kris Joseph 15, while C.J. Fair made a huge impression off the bench with 14 points and a game-high 12 rebounds as the team shot a staggering 10-of-16 beyond the arc and 59.3 percent from the floor overall. In conference games this season, Joseph leads a balanced offensive attack with his 14.2 ppg, with Waiters (12.5 ppg) being the only other double-digit performer on the roster. Jardine (8.2 ppg) has served up 77 assists during the conference slate and because of that the team has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the county. Taking exceptional care of the basketball, the Orange averages less than 11 turnovers per contest over the entire season, and that too is one of the top marks in the nation.
Trailing by as many as 13 points in the first half on Saturday at West Virginia, the Cardinals turned up the defensive pressure after the break and held the hosts to just eight total field goals and escaped with the three- point win after Darryl Bryant missed a three-pointer at the end of regulation. Louisville had a balanced scoring attack that saw five players reach double figures, beginning with Kyle Kuric who tallied 17 points and knocked down a pair of crucial free throws in the final moments. Russ Smith pitched in with 16 points, Chris Smith and Wayne Blackshear 13 apiece and Peyton Siva finished with 10 points and five assists. Kuric, who had a huge game against Syracuse last season, leads four regulars in double figures with his 13.2 ppg, followed by Russ Smith (12.3 ppg), Chris Smith (10.5 ppg) and Gorgui Dieng (10.1 ppg), the latter also responsible for a team-best 9.2 rpg. Siva (8.5 ppg) has had his moments on offense, but it is his job to distribute the ball (131 assists) and also play tight defense (41 steals) and because of him and Russ Smith (55 steals), the Cardinals are averaging 9.4 thefts per game which ranks among the best in the nation.
<< Jayhawks and Wildcats mix it up in Manhattan
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sunflower State rivals square off in
Manhattan this evening, as the Kansas Jayhawks pay a visit to the Kansas State
Wildcats in an important Big 12 Conference clash.
After a December 19 loss to Davidson, Kans
<< Heat try to solve Bucks at Bradley Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat resume a hectic three games in three nights
stretch tonight when they hit the hardwood at Bradley Center vs. the Milwaukee
Bucks.
The Heat kicked off their tough journey and improved to 2-1 on a season-long
<< Jazz continue hectic stretch in NOLA
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Utah continues a grueling three games in three nights road
stretch tonight in the Big Easy when it visits the struggling New Orleans
Hornets.
The Jazz snapped a three-game skid in Memphis last night with an impressive
98-
<< Canucks host streaking Coyotes in Vancouver
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes will try to push their longest winning
streak of the season to six games when they visit the first-place Vancouver
Canucks tonight at Rogers Arena.
The Coyotes, who are holding onto the eighth seed in t
Clippers finish road trip in Dallas >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers hope to tie a bow on a successful
road trip by securing their first win in over five years in North Texas when
they take on the reigning NBA champion Mavericks.
The Clips have lost nine straight in
Rounding Third: Linsanity would never happen in MLB >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The whole sports world seems to be
enamored with what's going on with the New York Knicks and Jeremy Lin. It's
become a story that has transcended not only the National Basketball
Association, but all of spor
Revs add French forward Sene >>
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Revolution announced on
Monday that the club has acquired forward Saer Sene on a free transfer from
Bayern Munich.
Sene has spent the past two-and-a-half years playing with Bayern
Packers make changes to offensive staff >>
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy
announced a few changes to the club's offensive staff on Monday.
Jerry Fontenot will move from running backs coach to tight ends coach for
2012, while Ben
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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